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"Can't innovate anymore, my ass! - Phil Schiller, Apple's Senior Vice President of Worldwide Marketing
After watching the WWDC 2013 Keynote, yesterday, I'm a believer. I can't wait to get my hands on the new Mac Pro that looks like a space probe accessory with enough power and speed to take over and run a small country without breaking a sweat! I loved the super fast MacBook Air (notebook) with it's all-day battery. However, I'm most impressed with the quantum leap advances in Apples operating systems. Both OS10 Mavericks and iOS7 are mouth-wateringly better than anything out there. They may still have Steve Job's brain under a bell jar and wired to create and inspire. Or, maybe he simply left behind awsomely creative people who know how to make awesome stuff.
Looking forward to how Adobe's Creative Cloud offerings perform in this new environment. Yum!
Calling the Lost and Found! We just had a great meeting celebrating the 3 Year Anniversary of the Web – Video Crossroads. Apparently, a hickup in the last couple of weeks knocked that meeting off of our list of past meetings. Thankfully, that wonderful event is carefully preserved on our website (occma.org), our Meetup and our Facebook page. You will find a fabulous photo album of each on the last two sites. If you missed the meeting or attended it online, visit one of those photo albums to get a taste of the specialness of the event. A multitude of fine people have contributed to the quality and enjoyment of these 3 years. Thank you to all! I can't wait to see what is in store for the coming 12 months.
I've said before that if you design for today, your are behind before you start. Like a surfer straining to see over an approaching wave to size up the swell beyond it, we can make better decisions if we have some perspective on the future. We may not have the ability to shape the future like Steve Jobs but we can plan for what we know is coming and even make a best guess beyond that. Here's some of what I see in my crystal ball.
The economy will still suck but it will suck a little less. Best to concentrate on how to get a bigger slice of the pie 'cause the pie ain't gettin' any bigger. If you lack a marketing budget, look through your notes on my presentation about guerrilla marketing at last March's Web – Video Crossroads meeting. Come to think of it, what did I do with my notes?!
Social Network related marketing is just getting started. That doesn't mean placing an ad on Facebook or Twitter. Rather, establishing a social network site that provides desired information as part of an overall campaign to be valued by clients and build your rep. If you missed Marcelo Lewin's presentation at last Thursday's Web – Video Crossroads meeting, I highly recommend you go to his website and buy his onDemand version. Hugely informative!
Jack and the Beanstalk introduced us to what goes on in the cloud. Today, much of what we do is in the cloud. Our music is in the cloud (iTunes). Some of our documents (Google Docs) are kept there. In the future, we will spend even more time there. Get used to it. Adobe has their Creative Cloud where several new Touch Apps live. Of course, all of our emails and downloads have passed through the cloud ever since Al Gore invented the internet.
iOS(iPhone) and Android devices will continue to dominate with Windows growing to respectable numbers. RIM (Blackberry) devices will continue to slide. Adobe's software (Flash, Flex, Dreamweaver) that allows mere mortals to develop once for the most popular operating systems is a marvelous investment.
iPad2 sales have zoomed and the Motorola Xoom has not. The Kindle Fire is doing well and should have a great 2012. The iPad has totally revolutionized the magazine world. I haven't paid much attention to Adobe's Digital Publishing Suite but it is becoming the standard platform for publishing and monetizing digital publications. It was used to develop 14 of the top 20 apps in the Apple Newstand.
Thin, light ultraBooks are the non-Apple response to the market losses which have gone to the iPad. They have the full processing power of a traditional laptop but prices are much higher than tablets. With 75 models being available by the end of the year, the industry is betting on great sales. Maybe.
Web and Mobile
The opportunity I have recognized for some time will continue through 2012. Websites need to be friendlier for those viewing on smartphones and tablets. Dreamweaver's integration of PhoneGap and jQuery will allow me to take on this type of project with very powerful tools. Last week, Adobe PhoneGap was named a 2012 Technology of the Year Award recipient by IDG’s InfoWorld Test Center! I also see an ever expanding opportunity for reaching potential clients with helpful, timely, location-aware information on their mobile devices. Every week I see another article about companies trying out things new things...like google wallet or PayPal for retail store transactions. Augmented reality apps have a ton of potential. However, Near Field Communication (NFC), which has been in the trial mode for years, seems to require too much up front cost for devices to be worth the risk. Apps like those that provide product info via a smartphone's camera scanning barcodes seem to get the job done in a friendly manner and the consumer has already footed the bill for the device.
As demand for Flash based web projects has been drying up, its utility for creating mobile apps has ramped up. With the number of iOS apps and Android apps over a half million each, you may be tempted to think that, "everything that can be invented has been invented." However, I think the next great app is just over the ridge.
Features: A year or two down the line, expect 4K TVs and OLED screens (super thin) to be commonly available but at a premium. 3D will become a standard feature.
Trends: Steve Jobs never put a Blu-ray drive in an Apple product. One of the reasons for this is his belief that as internet bandwidth increased, 1080p and greater resolution could be delivered electronically through iTunes, AppleTV and others. More and more game consoles (PS3, Wii, XBOX360) and other players (TiVo, WD, Roku, etc.) are being allowed to deliver high definition programming from the web to your HDTV. Producing TV programs for online-only delivery has become big business and will continue to grow. At the same time, viewing TV programs on a device other than a TV is growing like a weed. The Super Bowl will be broadcast online for the first time this year. Additionally, it will be available on mobile devices served by Verizon. This is definitely a sign of things to come! Sales of TVs will trend downward as viewing on other devices trends upward.
The trend for using HDSLR cameras to shoot video has become commonplace. A gillion new camera models are being introduced to tap this market. Feature choices are on the upswing and price points are heading downward. The longer you can wait, the more you will be able to buy for the buck. Currently, the popular camera at the low end of the professional videographer market seems to be the Canon 60D. With a basic Canon 18-135 lens it sells for about $800 and gets excellent results. At the high end, the RED Scarlet camera started shipping in production quantities last month. It shoots 4K motion capture (they don't call it video) suitable for a high budget Hollywood production or professional quality stills for a magazine cover and sells for $9,750 before lenses. That is insanely cheap for what it can do.
It will be a challenging year but I expect we will have some fun along the way. Please add your comments related to your seer thoughts.
Waddaya think? WebVidMob? Mobile is hanging 10 on the wave of the future. When we started our group it was a swell with promise. Now that wave is building toward tsunami proportions. We've often dealt with issues related to mobile but I'm feeling the need to have it represented in our group's name. For nearly 2 years we've been known as the Web – Video Crossroads but typically refer to ourselves as the WebVid group. I'm thinking of changing our group moniker to WebVidMob. I like the double meaning of the "Mob" portion of the name, i.e., standing for both mobile devices, as well as, an unruly crowd. Thoughts?
How many times in your life have you been wowed by a new software that made you gasp? We are pretty jaded by the continuous barrage of the latest and greatest but I remember an Orange County MultiMedia Association (OCMMA) meeting back in 1996 when we were introduced to what would soon become Flash. I recall the crowd of 60 or so multimedians simultaniously letting out a sound like the crowd at a fireworks show as that new tool was demonstrated. It was called Future Splash before Macromedia acquired it later that year. I remember thinking, "this is going to change everything." After viewing a video demo of Adobe's new product, Edge, I couldn't help but recall that Flash moment. I suspect I've found the tool I will be relying upon for some time to come. I plan to make Edge a major focus of future Web – Video Crossroads meetings starting with the one on September 8th. I've even changed the byline of our group to, "On the Edge of Tomorrow." Let's have fun!